Segmentirani stranački sustav Bosne i Hercegovine

Stranački sustav Bosne i Hercegovine je kompleksan i sastoji se od više razina interakcije i međustranačkog natjecanja. Uzimajući u obzir politički relevantne društvene rascjepe često se govori da se svo međustranačko natjecanje odvija unutar etnički definiranih segmenata hrvatskih, srpskih, bošnjačkih (i multietničkih) stranaka, ali empirijski dokazi nedostaju. Analizom izbornih rezultata za Parlament Bosne i Hercegovine od 1996. do 2014. godine, te koristeći mjeru volatilnosti između stranačkih segmenata, dokazujem postojanje četiri (ili tri i pol) etnički definirana stranačka podsustava s gotovo nepostojećom prohodnosti glasača. Istovremeno postoji znatna volatilnost unutar ovih segmenata, što potvrđuje da se političko natjecanje u Bosni i Hercegovini odvija isključivo unutar četiri segmenta stranačkog sustava među strankama istog etničkog predznaka.

Kapidžić, D. (2017). Segmentirani stranački sustav Bosne i Hercegovine (The Segmented Party System of Bosnia and Herzegovina). Političke perspective, 7(1-2), 7–23. DOI:10.20901/pp.7.1-2.01

English title and abstract:

The Segmented Party System of Bosnia and Herzegovina

The party system of Bosnia and Herzegovina is complex and consists of several levels of interaction and party competition. Because of the politically relevant cleavages, researchers have claimed that party competition is centered withing the ethnically defined segments of Croat, Serb, Bosniak (and multiethnic) parties, but there has been no empirical evidence to back that claim. By analyzing election results for the Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina 1996–2014, and by measuring the volatility among party segments, the author identifies four (or three and a half) ethnically defined party subsystems with almost non-existent voter fluctuation among them. At the same time, there is a significant volatility within these segments. The empirical analysis confirms the claim that the political party competition in Bosnia and Herzegovina exists solely inside the four segments of the party system among parties with the same ethnic label.